St0kes

What on-chain prices actually do

Three measurements of machinery that decides money, each carried out against the chain itself rather than against a description of it.

Every number printed in these papers is produced by the same run that checks it, and the input hashes are stamped into the output, so a reader can tell whether their copy of the data is the one the tables came from. Where a claim did not survive the measurement, the paper says so and keeps the measurement.


19 September 2026

Making simulation affordable on chain

Every on-chain option protocol prices with a closed form, because simulation costs too much to run inside a call. That choice is paid for twice: a payoff with no closed form cannot be quoted at all, and the volatility a closed form needs has to be imported from off chain or agreed by a vote. This measures where a simulated quote spends its gas and removes most of it.

one quote, 20,790,204 gas down to 3,125,934  ·  a free call reaches 128 paths instead of 32
19 September 2026

The term a Monte Carlo engine drops

A simulated price walks in steps of one fixed size. Real steps are not one fixed size. Fitting every statistic per ticker on nine equities, the direction of a move carries nothing and its size carries a great deal, and pricing the same contracts over a process that has that property moves them.

absolute-return slope 0.273, positive on all nine  ·  excess kurtosis 5.07 at five minutes, 1.89 by half a day
19 September 2026

The Reynolds number of an on-chain price

An oracle holds still until the price has travelled a fixed distance. In a calm market nobody notices. Comparing what the chain was saying against the tape, minute by minute, the departures concentrate where the market is moving faster than the oracle can follow.

194,930 minutes, three feeds, two exchanges  ·  1 departure over one percent below the threshold, 61 above